The Improvident Team – I – Folha de S. Paulo, December 2, 1973
by Plinio Corrêa de Oliveira
Western civilization is undoubtedly the greatest that has appeared in history from a material point of view. These days, however, the West is shaking in its boots, suddenly realizing that one of the indispensable conditions for its existence is in the hands of elements it despises and even hates.
The almost entirely secular and republican West despises the Persian Gulf’s kings and emirs as folkloric figures who merely survived a political-religious regime it considers decrepit. Suddenly, Western public opinion realizes that the entire transportation system, of which it was so proud, depends largely on those rulers from the age of turbans and camels.
As for oil that does not come from the Persian Gulf, it is in the hands of populist dictators who, without turbans or camels, exercise an even more fanatical and iron-fisted despotism than kings and emirs. To a considerable extent, the proud West also depends on these despised populist rulers, who, in Jeeps and shirt sleeves, lack even the kings and emirs’ poetry of the “Thousand and One Nights.”
Behind them all—kings, emirs, and populist tyrants—looms the hated shadow of Brezhnev and his gang. The West understands that if the oil tap is in the hands of certain Arab heads of state, those heads of state, in turn, are held in the immensely larger, stronger, and more terrible grip of international communism. Thus, the communist world is proving to the capitalist world that it can profoundly disrupt or even halt its functioning at any moment.
Some may argue that this statement applies only to Europe and Japan. After all, the US economy relies on Arab oil for only 10% of its energy needs. In reality, a collapse of the European economy could have catastrophic consequences for US trade.
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Where is this, which anyone can see, leading?
It is leading to a tragic and obvious consequence that few want to see.
Either European and American public opinion will make a heroic decision to endure cold and even hunger, perhaps for years to come, to preserve their independence, or the Western world will be virtually “Finlandized,” leading to worldwide communist domination.
This is the tragic alternative to which we have been led by events, or, more precisely, by the people who produce them; they seem so capable of organizing today, yet so supinely and disconcertingly incapable of predicting tomorrow.
Indeed, it is impossible to escape this question: how could Western leaders fail to realize that an economy based on Arab oil would be severely hampered if that oil were to disappear? Even more, how could they not foresee that by allowing oil sources to slowly fall under communist influence, they were handing Moscow a terrible means of pressure and a path to victory?
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This question plunges an objective observer into an ocean of perplexity, all the more so because the risk that now looms over our heads could have been foreseen long ago.
For example, on June 25, 1972, readers of this Folha newspaper were presented with an article on the subject, from which I highlight only the following sentences:
“By cutting off oil supplies from the Middle East, Russia could paralyze almost all of Western Europe’s industries and transportation systems at a moment’s notice.”
“Such a measure is becoming increasingly feasible … All Middle Eastern oil could soon be in Soviet hands.
“This is one of Europe’s Achilles’ heels. The other is the military situation.
“Without oil, Western Europe’s war effort is reduced to almost nothing.”
These statements were not written by a public figure with access to the privileged media resources available to official agencies.
I wrote them based on what an attentive newspaper reader knows.
How, then, did so many people across the public and private spheres fail to see the obvious?
Sometimes, it takes real asceticism to see the obvious. For example, it forces us to move from the dazzling sphere of grandiose plans for progress and a prosperous, peaceful world to the distressing problems inherent in predicting and analyzing the dangers the future holds, as we shift from a state of construction to one of struggle. Now, building is pleasant, and struggling is painful.
And – roughly speaking – the West’s mentors have shied away from this unpleasant task.
